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Figure 4: Actual and Predicted Annual Levels of Art. 177 References from Intra-EC Trade

The Actual line plots the yearly number of art. 177 references by national courts to the ECJ, 1961-92. The Predicted line plots the number of annual references predicted by the regression analysis in which intra-EC trade and a post-1969 Dummy variable (coded "0" from 1961-69, and "1" from 1970-92) are the independent variables, and the annual number of art. 177 references for the EC as a whole is the dependent variable. Levels of aggregate trade begin with the original six member-states (Belgium, France, Germany, Italy, Luxembourg, and the Netherlands), and as new member-states join the EC, their trade figures are included. Trade data are from Eurostat: External Trade 1958-93, Brussels: EC Publications, 1995. The source for art. 177 references is data collected by the authors and the ECJ. The regression equation is y=3.56 + .0000938(intra-EC Trade) + 39.93(post-1969 Dummy)+ e. The adjusted R²=.91, n=32, SEE=17.92, and the Durbin-Waston statistic for the regression equation=1.85. The t-statistics are: 0.59 for the constant; 10.59 for intra-EC Trade; and 4.52 for the post-1969 Dummy.

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